Supporting evidence-based adaptation decision-making in the Australian Capital Territory: a synthesis of climate change adaptation research

This research synthesis provides policy-makers and practitioners with an understanding of the building blocks for effective adaptation decision-making, as evidenced through the NCCARF research program. It synthesised a portfolio of adaptation research for each Australian state and territory and addressing the complex relationships between research and policy development.   Each state and territory synthesis report directs users to research relevant identified priorities. Authored by Jennifer Cane, Laura Cacho, Nicolas Dircks and Peter Steele

Supporting evidence-based adaptation decision-making in Victoria: a synthesis of climate change adaptation research

This research synthesis provides policy-makers and practitioners with an understanding of the building blocks for effective adaptation decision-making, as evidenced through the NCCARF research program. It synthesised a portfolio of adaptation research for each Australian state and territory and addressing the complex relationships between research and policy development. Each state and territory synthesis report directs users to research relevant identified priorities

Supporting evidence-based adaptation decision-making in South Australia: a synthesis of climate change adaptation research

This research synthesis provides policy-makers and practitioners with an understanding of the building blocks for effective adaptation decision-making, as evidenced through the NCCARF research program. It synthesised a portfolio of adaptation research for each Australian state and territory and addressing the complex relationships between research and policy development.   Each state and territory synthesis report directs users to research relevant identified priorities

Supporting evidence-based adaptation decision-making in New South Wales: a synthesis of climate change adaptation research

This research synthesis provides policy-makers and practitioners with an understanding of the building blocks for effective adaptation decision-making, as evidenced through the NCCARF research program. It synthesised a portfolio of adaptation research for each Australian state and territory and addressing the complex relationships between research and policy development.   Each state and territory synthesis report directs users to research relevant identified priorities. Authored by Jennifer Cane, Laura Cacho, Nicholas Dircks, Peter Steele

1031 Tenant in Common Exchanges: A Tic king Time Bomb at the Intersection of Real Estate, Securities, and Tax Law?

Those who follow economic trends know that investing in real estate has recently become a hotbed of activity. In response to the stock market\u27s unpredictability, investors have been drawn to the commercial real estate market in record numbers, seeking to capitalize on low interest rates coupled with the rising appreciation such properties have offered. In addition to the potential upside of such investments, many commercial property investors seek a tax deferral method for the capital gains they realized upon the sale of other previously owned property. Section 1031 of the Internal Revenue Code ( Section 1031 ), under specially defined circumstances, allows for deferral of the tax liability that would otherwise be imposed as a result of real property capital gains.3 For a variety of reasons which will be discussed, greater numbers of investors are choosing to take advantage of Section 1031\u27s tax liability deferral by purchasing fractional interests in commercial real property through 1031 Tenant-in-Common (\u27TIC\u27) exchanges. The 1031 TIC exchange is a relatively new investment vehicle that raises a number of novel legal issues. Primarily, whether such an arrangement should be considered a security under federal tax, federal securities, and state securities laws. The provisions of Section 1031 specifically exclude exchanges involving stocks, bonds, or notes 6 as well as other securities. Therefore, if a 1031 TIC exchange is deemed to be a security, it is questionable whether the arrangement would then meet the requirements of Section 1031 and entitle the investor to a tax deferral benefit. The Internal Revenue Service is aware of the issue of whether, or under what circumstances, a TIC may constitute a security that may not be exchanged under Section 1031, and is watching how matters develop as the TIC concept evolves in the Section 1031 context. This article will explore the burgeoning 1031 TIC industry, discuss the nuances of 1031 TIC exchanges, and provide an analysis of whether such transactions are in fact, securities, and if so, whether that status poses a problem for the taxpayer seeking the advantages of Section 1031

Exploring the Potential for Using ENSO Forecasts in the U.S. Corn Belt

Interannual climate variability poses the greatest risk that farmers face. Until recently, seasonal climate forecasts have been weak and therefore rarely observed by farmers in making management decisions. Farm management is generally based on long-term mean expectations of climate and crop responses to local edaphic conditions. Currently, significant progress is being made in the skill level of predictions of seasonal to interannual climate, primarily because of new understanding of the teleconnections between ocean circulation and atmospheric processes. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) refers to fluctuations in both sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern equatorial Pacific and in sea-level pressures in the southern Pacific at a time scale of roughly 3 to 7 years. Using ocean circulation models, we are now able to forecast the SST anomaly up to a year in advance with an 80% level of accuracy (Latif et al., 1994). Thus, associated climate phenomena may be predicted with a high degree of skill using this tool. Given the strong relationship between crop growth and climate, this predictability carries significant implications for improved efficiency of agricultural production (Adams et al., 1995; Sonka et al., 1986). In some regions, the teleconnection between climate and ENSO has been well established. In others, however, the relationship is only now being elucidated. Thus, the spatial extent of the potential for use of ENSO forecasts is not well defined. We are developing a methodology that uses analysis of historical climate and crop data as well as models of crop growth and farm management to explore the extent of ENSO impacts and implications for using forecasts in agricultural management. Based on the few studies that have been done, there is indication of a significant link between ENSO and climate in the midwestern United States. Using reconstruction from white oak tree rings in Iowa going back to 1640, Cleveland and Duvick (1992) showed a strong correlation with the Southern Oscillation Index, one indicator of the ENSO phase. Handler (1984) used yield data from the major Corn Belt states going back to 1868 and a classification scheme ranking event intensity. He found a strong relationship, with El Niño years associated with positive maize yield anomalies and La Niña with negative anomalies. Our current work extends the analysis of the U.S. Corn Belt, with the objective of testing the potential for using long-range ENSO/climate forecasts to increase profit margins and decrease risk for maize farmers in the United States

A 2-year randomised placebo-controlled trial of doxycycline for lymphangioleiomyomatosis

Lymphangioleiomyomatosis (LAM) is characterised by lung cysts and airflow obstruction. Matrix metalloproteinases have been implicated in lung destruction in LAM. We performed a randomised, double-blind trial, comparing the matrix metalloproteinases inhibitor doxycycline with placebo on the progression of LAM. 23 females with LAM were randomised to doxycycline 100 mg daily for 3 months followed by 200 mg daily for 21 months, or matched placebo. Lung function, exercise capacity, quality of life and matrix metalloproteinases levels were measured. 21 patients completed 6 months of treatment, 17 completed 1 year of treatment and 15 completed 2 years of treatment. Eight withdrew from the trial due, four due to a pneumothorax and four because of other reasons. The mean±sd decline in FEV1, the primary endpoint, did not differ between the groups being -90±154 mL·year−1 in the placebo group and -123±246 mL·year−1 in the doxycycline group (difference -32.5, 95% CI -213–148; p=0.35). Doxycycline had no effect upon vital capacity, gas transfer, shuttle walk distance or quality of life. Urine matrix metalloproteinases-9 measurements were lower with doxycycline treatment (p=0.03). Although with limited numbers we cannot completely exclude an effect of doxycycline, the lack of effect on any outcome makes it unlikely that doxycycline has a useful effect in LAM

Atmosphere-ocean dynamics of persistent cold states of the tropical Pacific Ocean

Persistent multiyear cold states of the tropical Pacific Ocean drive hydroclimate anomalies worldwide, including persistent droughts in the extratropical Americas. Here, the atmosphere and ocean dynamics and thermodynamics of multiyear cold states of the tropical Pacific Ocean are investigated using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses and simplified models of the ocean and atmosphere. The cold states are maintained by anomalous ocean heat flux divergence and damped by increased surface heat flux from the atmosphere to ocean. The anomalous ocean heat flux divergence is contributed to by both changes in the ocean circulation and thermal structure. The keys are an anomalously shallow thermocline that enhances cooling by upwelling and anomalous westward equatorial currents that enhance cold advection. The thermocline depth anomalies are shown to be a response to equatorial wind stress anomalies. The wind stress anomalies are shown to be a simple dynamical response to equatorial SST anomalies as mediated by precipitation anomalies. The cold states are fundamentally maintained by atmosphere-ocean coupling in the equatorial Pacific. The physical processes that maintain the cold states are well approximated by linear dynamics for ocean and atmosphere and simple thermodynamics

Is there a role for human-induced climate change in the precipitation decline that drove the California drought?

The recent California drought was associated with a persistent ridge at the west coast of North America that has been associated with, in part, forcing from warm SST anomalies in the tropical west Pacific. Here it is considered whether there is a role for human-induced climate change in favoring such a west coast ridge. The models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project do not support such a case either in terms of a shift in the mean circulation or in variance that would favor increased intensity or frequency of ridges. The models also do not support shifts toward a drier mean climate or more frequent or intense dry winters or to tropical SST states that would favor west coast ridges. However, reanalyses do show that over the last century there has been a trend toward circulation anomalies over the Pacific–North American domain akin to those during the height of the California drought. The trend has been associated with a trend toward preferential warming of the Indo–west Pacific, an arrangement of tropical oceans and Pacific–North American circulation similar to that during winter 2013/14, the driest winter of the California drought. These height trends, how- ever, are not reproduced in SST-forced atmosphere model ensembles. In contrast, idealized atmosphere modeling suggests that increased tropical Indo-Pacific zonal SST gradients are optimal for forcing height trends that favor a west coast ridge. These results allow a tenuous case for human-driven climate change driving increased gradients and favoring the west coast ridge, but observational data are not sufficiently accurate to confirm or reject this case